If you spend most of your formative sailing experience on the treacherous waters of the Bay of Biscay, which has a notoriety for not providing a pleasant experience for anyone in a boat or ship, the chances are you’d be better prepared for storm conditions than someone brought up sailing only on the calmer waters of the Mediterranean.
A sailing analogy is turned to to illustrate why the Springboks have an edge on France heading into Friday night’s Nations Championship clash at Stade de France in Paris. It could just as easily be a cricket one. The Proteas will be more battle hardened, or test hardened, for the first game against Bangladesh that starts on Sunday than they were in Durban at the start of the Australian series. Because they have now played the Australian series.
The Boks played New Zealand in four incredibly tough and intense games in as many weeks in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series, something that both coaches agreed was a step up from even what they would experience at the business end of a Rugby World Cup. It was No 1 against No 2 every seven days, for four successive weekends.
The emotional strain of having to come back from 1-0 down to defend their pride on home soil might have cost the Boks in the immediate aftermath. Heading to Australia, to Perth, after winning the series in Baltimore seemed a strange way for them to celebrate that achievement and this writer is one person who is convinced that is what cost them the game against the Wallabies at the end of September. Put it down to the inevitable post-series hangover.
BOTH SA AND KIWIS HAVE GONE TO DIFFERENT LEVEL
That hangover has now worn off and both the Boks and the All Blacks have shown since then that the razor sharpness, physical and emotional strength required to compete in the RGR has put them on a different level. Some might say it was only Italy, but the Boks were near perfect in the first half in Turin last week before almost predictably the intensity dropped when the lead was 45-0.
In many ways the Turin game was similar to the New Zealand win over Australia in Sydney, when at one point the All Blacks were scoring at more than a point a minute and looked like they might hit 80 in the game. There was only one team on the field, just like there was in the latter stages of the first Bledisloe Cup game the previous week.
The Boks' points difference is looking good after the Italy win 😏🇿🇦 This is how things shape up ahead of this weekend's action 🤜💥🤛 #SSRugby | #NationsChampionship https://t.co/eZ9ADcRHCE
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) November 12, 2026
The Boks should be switched on in Paris on Friday night, ready for the big challenge coming their way, just because that is what they’ve kind of become used to. The RGR games were played at a different level, and arguably that step up has been carried into the first stages of the northern hemisphere leg of the Nations Championship.
The All Blacks were far from perfect in the first half against Scotland at Murrayfield last weekend, but they were playing under the pall of the sudden death of a management member during the buildup week and did show their greater international game capacity built up in the RGR in the second half of that game.
Most who watched last year’s Edinburgh clash between those teams and this most recent one will agree there is a big difference between the All Blacks then and now.
PACK AND POWER GAME SHOULD GIVE BOKS THE EDGE
It is not the RGR series of course that has made the Boks slight favourites at the bookies going into this game. That is more built on the perception that France are a bit disrupted by injury. There is no denying that they are, although it is not going to be at halfback, where France have two excellent scrumhalves in Maxime Lucu and skipper Antoine Dupont playing together, that this game will be decided.
Les Bleus have switched things up for the Boks in 2026 👀🔀 #SSRugby | #NationsChampionship https://t.co/Y4oGSePg2U
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) November 12, 2026
Why South African fans should be confident of their side’s chances of laying the platform for victory and ultimately deciding the game is because of what they have at forward. Eben Etzebeth is still missing but he is the only absentee from what would be the first choice forward unit and anyway there is nothing wrong with the formidably built and hugely influential, both at lineout time and as a ball carrier, Lood de Jager.
The reminder around De Jager, who was red carded in the first half of last year’s game, thus forcing the Boks to win with 14 men, is that sometimes there are unexpected curve-balls. The Boks got two of those in successive weeks last November, with Franco Mostert, on the bench on Friday, getting his marching orders - unluckily let it be said - in the following week’s game against Italy.
But if the Boks keep all their players on the field, the pack should get the better of a French unit that looks like it has been selected around a quest to be more mobile than the Boks, to stretch the big men and effectively run them off their feet. All five members of the back five, meaning lock to No 8, could conceivably play as loose-forwards.
FRANCE OUT TO APE THE ALL BLACKS
The theory that the Boks can be run off their feet and their defence exposed by a high tempo, all court game may sound familiar. It is exactly what the All Blacks were up to in the RGR series. Yes, they succeeded to some extent, which is perhaps what the French are basing their set up on, because they did score a lot of tries. But in the end they lost the series 3-1, and it was the Bok power game that prevailed.
The last few games between these nations, dating back to 2022, have all been very close. When these teams clash you don’t bet your house on the result. If I am wrong in promulgating that there is now a Big Two in world rugby, SA and New Zealand, then France would certainly be the other member of the Big Three. They can prove that by winning on Friday.
A message from Siya Kolisi ahead of a 𝐌𝐀𝐒𝐒𝐈𝐕𝐄 game for the Springboks on Friday night in Paris 🗣️🇿🇦 ▪️ 20:30 | Pre-Match Show ▪️ 21:00 | Build-Up ▪️ 22:10 | Kick-off ▪️ 00:10 | Match Wrap Pace yourselves, you've got a long night ahead in the company of #SSRugby 😁 https://t.co/xKltyMSxh5
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) November 12, 2026
My money says though that they won’t win. That while France does have depth, and let’s not forget they pushed New Zealand in three test matches in 2025 with a second/third string combination, they will find dealing with the Bok power game as hard as the All Blacks did. Expect a similar result to the one the Boks achieved in the last three tests in the RGR.
Teams for Paris
France: Theo Attisogbe, Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang, Kalvin Gourgues, Yoram Moefana, Louis Bielle-Biarrey, Antoine Dupont, Maxime Lucu, Gregory Alldritt, Cameron Woki, Francois Cros, Mickael Guillard, Florian Verhaeghe, Sipili Falatea, Jean-Baptiste Gros. Replacements: Peato Mauvaka, Rodgirue Meti, Regis Montagne, Charles Ollivon, Tom Staniforth, Esteban Capilla, Axel Desperes, Emilion Gailleton.
South Africa: Damian Willemse, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Ethan Hooker, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Morne van den Berg, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Lood de Jager, Wilco Louw, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Gerhard Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, Franco Mostert, Cameron Hanekom, Paul de Villiers, Cobus Reinach, Manie Libbok.
Referee: Andrea Pardi (Italy)
Kick-off: 22.10
Prediction: Boks to win by 8