The Vodacom Bulls are the South African team that faces the toughest task as the Heineken Champions Cup starts to heat up with this weekend’s first knock-out fixtures as the competition reaches the round of 16.
It’s not just the fact that the Bulls are struggling, and you could argue that their were signs of revival in the loss to Ulster in Belfast last week, but the strength of Toulouse that makes their visit to the French team on Sunday such a formidable proposition. Toulouse have won the Champions Cup five times, which is a record, so that just about sums it up.
Couple that with the fact the Bulls are playing them in Toulouse and it represents a situation that could be described as the Bulls having nothing to lose, which could make them potentially dangerous. It certainly would be a huge fillip for Jake White and his men if they did win and it would give them confidence to be able to go anywhere.
COASTAL TEAMS WILL BE FAVOURED
In contrast to the Bulls, the DHL Stormers and the Cell C Sharks should start as favourites to win their respective home clashes with the Harlequins and Munster respectively. Although it is the Stormers who are definitely the form team, with the Sharks so often delivering less than expected, it is arguably the Durbanites who have the better chance of winning as they play a Munster team that was well beaten by Glasgow Warriors last week.
The Stormers should be emboldened by the knowledge that Harlequins haven’t had a good time of it in the English Premiership recently, but Harlequins are also a team that has the X-factor to beat anyone on a given day. Don’t bet your entire life savings against Harlequins beating the Stormers at their own game.
Whatever the result though in Cape Town, it should be a highly watchable game, with two teams highly committed to attack and ball in hand rugby, and both of them possessing classy flyhalves in Manie Libbok and Marcus Smith respectively.
INTERESTING WEEKEND ACROSS THE BOARD
The group stages of the Heineken Cup arguably didn’t deliver, perhaps because there wasn’t enough jeopardy for the teams as it was almost impossible not to advance to the next round. But now the knock-outs have arrived it has upped the pressure and should intensify the pressure.
Apart from the games the South African teams are playing, there’s also an interesting knock-out derby between Leinster and Ulster. Leinster are the form team, but no side wants to play a derby in the knock-outs, particularly not at this early stage of those knock-outs.
The Emirates Lions play Racing 92 in their Challenge Cup round of 16 clash straight after the Sharks and Stormers games so Saturday will be an appetising triple header for South African fans. Cheetahs fans can also watch their team in action, although that game in Toulon does unfortunately clash with the Sharks/Munster game. Which is a pity.
Weekend Heineken Champions Cup fixtures (SA teams)
Cell C Sharks v Munster (Durban, Saturday 1.30pm)
The Sharks are in the position they’ve been in for much of the season - they are going into an important game desperately needing a response. Losing to Scarlets in the URC last week was definitely not what the Durban franchise wanted or needed, and they face a tight battle to ensure Champions Cup qualification next year, but the European competition is the one they want to do well in.
Munster came a cropper themselves last week so this is a game where both teams are in a similar situation. Graham Rowntree, the Munster coach, was honest in his appraisal of his team’s performance last week and described it as something that “must not happen again” and “that’s not us”. He also said that to win at HollywoodBets Kings Park would require his team’s best performance of the season.
He also appeared to be in denial about his team’s sudden poor defensive record though. Munster conceded four tries in the first half against Glasgow Warriors last week and five in the second half against Scarlets the previous game so effectively they shipped nine tries in 80 minutes of rugby. Perhaps that is something for the Sharks to exploit, but it will require the appearance of an attacking shape they’ve largely lacked.
Director of rugby Neil Powell was right to lament after last week’s loss in Wales the lack of team work and that is what he is asking for this week. Perhaps the Sharks can be excused for the breakdowns in their game in Llanelli on the basis that the Boks were rusty after two months out. They don’t have that excuse this week and they should be a lot better. The fact that they would have spent the buildup week in a crisis management process might just spell bad news for Munster.
All teams are to be named only on Friday afternoon but the Sharks should stick with largely the same team that played in Wales.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 12 or more.
DHL Stormers v Harlequins (Cape Town, Saturday 16.00)
This is being talked up as potentially the most spectacular game of the weekend, but that’s a potential banana peel for the Stormers too. For they are up against a side that is very much like themselves in both the way they approach the game and also the way they can suddenly break games apart with their X-factor.
The Harlequins have good attacking players across the board, and while they have been struggling on the club scene in England, and are lagging in the Premiership after winning just one of their last eight games, they have the ability to do what the Stormers did to the Bulls just before Christmas - in other words deliver a spate of scoring (remember the Stormers’ three tries in the space of a few minutes) that can completely kill the game, or at the very least force you into a challenging catch up role.
Marcus Smith, the dazzling flyhalf who possesses many of the skills of the Stormers’ Manie Libbok, has been a bit of a game seller this week, but perhaps even more important to the visitors’ chances is Andre Esterhuizen, the former Sharks centre who was excellent in his last visit to South Africa to play his former teammates back in December.
In that Durban game there were a few times where it looked like Quins were well out of it and destined to be buried but back they came each time and in the final 10 minutes the Sharks were hanging on. When the teams met at the Stoop a few weeks later, Harlequins were significantly the better team, and arguably should have won by more than 10 points.
On the evidence of that game, the Stormers will need to place a high priority on slowing down Harlequins ball. If they don’t succeed in that, they could be vulnerable to what would be their first loss in Cape Town since 2021. That said, they should be battle hardened and confident after their hard fought draw with URC log leaders Leinster in Dublin and the Boks will be sharper and in better form for the experience.
The one definite change to the Stormers team will be the return of Ernst van Rhyn at lock for Ruben van Heerden, who is ineligible to play because he played for Exeter Chiefs in the competition earlier in the season. The smart money should also be on Damian Willemse moving to fullback to accommodate the return of Ruhan Nel as the midfield partner to Dan du Plessis, who is also better at No 12 than No 13.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 8.
Toulouse v Vodacom Bulls (Toulouse, Sunday 16.00)
The Bulls offered some hope of revival in their loss to Ulster in Belfast last Saturday. If they can reproduce the form they showed when building a 20-12 lead at halftime at the Kingspan Stadium, then they can challenge anybody, and can certainly win a one-off game against anyone.
But as the end result last week suggests, with the hosts coming back to win by nine points, the Bulls are still struggling to put it together over an entire 80 minutes. They were stymied by some poor refereeing, but they also did lose their discipline in the second half, and Jake White knows full well that when you play away in Europe you can usually expect to not get the rub of the green when it comes to the officiating.
Toulouse are formidable opponents and they are playing at an intimidating home venue so the odds are strongly stacked against the Bulls in this game. A victory will be as big a shock and achievement as their win over Leinster at the RDS Arena in last year’s URC semifinal, perhaps even more so as back then Leinster were suffering the hangover from a last gasp defeat in last year’s Champions Cup final.
On last week’s evidence, the Bulls will have a chance if their forwards can find a way to carry the ball for 80 minutes and chances are offered to their two potentially world class X-factor Springbok back three players Kurt Lee Arendse and Canaan Moodie. The Sharks lost the big moments last week, the game will be different if they win them on Sunday. White also has an advantage over the other SA coaches for a game like this in that he has coached a lot in France.
But Toulouse don’t often lose, and particularly not at home, so they will start as overwhelming favourites to end the Bulls’ interest in this competition.
Prediction: Toulouse to win by 12 or more.Other Champions Cup fixtures
Leicester v Edinburgh (Leicester, Friday 21.00)
Leinster v Ulster (Dublin, Saturday 18.30)
La Rochelle v Gloucester (La Rochelle, Saturday 18.30)
Exeter Chiefs v Montpellier (Exeter, Sunday 13.30)
Saracens v Ospreys (Watford, Sunday 16.00)
European Challenge Cup
Toulon v Toyota Cheetahs (Saturday 13.30)
The Cheetahs did well to get this far but their interest in the competition should be ended by formidable Toulon on their home ground. Still, it is a nothing to lose situation for the Cheetahs, and they can go for broke. So it could be an interesting game to watch.
Prediction: Toulon to win by 15.
Emirates Lions v Racing 92 (Johannesburg, Saturday 18.30)
The Lions have momentum in the URC suddenly and they did beat Stade Francaise in Johannesburg earlier in the season. However, the French teams were sending out second string teams during the group phases and it is unlikely they will do so for a knock-out fixture. The Lions do have altitude on their side and they do also have confidence after wins over Glasgow Warriors at home and the Bulls and Benetton away.
Hopefully there will be a bigger crowd than we have seen at Emirates Airlines Parks games recently for the Lions are playing a brand of rugby that deserves to be supported, and they are also up against quality opposition in this game.
With this game following on from the Stormers/Harlequins game which in turn follows the clash at Hollywoodbets Kings Park, this does present an appetising triple header for South African fans who want to watch it all on television.
Prediction: Racing 92 to win by 8.
Other Challenge Cup fixtures
Bristol v Clermont Auvergne (Bristol, Friday 21.00)
Scarlets v Brive (Llanelli, Friday 21.00)
Stade Francais v Lyon (Paris, Saturday 16.00)
Benetton v Connacht (Treviso, Saturday 16.00)
Glasgow Warriors v Dragons (Glasgow, Saturday 18.30)
Cardiff Rugby v Sale (Cardiff, Saturday 21.00)