This could well be the weekend where the South African teams end their interest in this seasoedition of the Heineken Champions Cup, but what they do have on their side is the positive mind-space that sometimes comes with having nothing to lose and everything to gain.
On the face of it there might be reason for negativity if no South African team makes it into the top four, but in reality that shouldn’t be the case. This was always going to be an exploratory first year for the local sides, and among other things they had to get used to juggling the demands of playing in two top competitions. Last year they could just focus on the Vodacom United Rugby Championship.
And also let’s not forget the travel factor, something that automatically puts the local sides on the back foot just because they have to do so much more flying in a season than their opponents do. An overseas club crosses the equator at most twice in a season, for the South African sides those long trips sometimes occur twice or even three times in a month.
It is because the South African teams have had to travel to their quarterfinals that they start as underdogs.
STORMERS HAVE BEST CHANCE
The circuitous route the Stormers have taken to get to Exeter for Saturday’s game at Sandy Park has been well documented. They do though look like the South African team with the best chance of winning this weekend. The Sharks have plenty of World Cup winners in their squad, but Toulouse are a formidable obstacle and we understand that Eben Etzebeth won’t be playing for the Sharks.
The other South African team still alive in Europe is the Emirates Lions, who play their Challenge Cup quarterfinal at Scotstoun on Saturday night to end what should be an appetising triple header Easter Saturday for local rugby fans, with the three games pretty much being played one after the other.
The action gets underway on Friday night with Champions Cup favourites Leinster facing a Leicester Tigers team that has Springboks Handre Pollard and Jasper Wiese in good form. It ends on Sunday with what could be an epic face-off between champions La Rochelle and Saracens.
Heineken Champions Cup quarterfinals
Leinster v Leicester Tigers (Dublin, Friday 21.00)
The Vodacom United Rugby Championship table toppers have been as dominant in the Heineken Champions Cup as they have been in the URC but they might not have been overly delighted to learn that Leicester, who are a dangerous team, would be their quarterfinal opponents. Handre Pollard is in good form for the Tigers, so is Jasper Wiese, and the visitors have nothing to lose. So it could be an interesting game, though the hosts have only been prevented from winning once this season, which was by the Stormers when they drew a fortnight ago. So don’t bet against them.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 14
Toulouse v Cell C Sharks (Toulouse, Saturday 16.00)
Wouldn’t it be perfect timing if the Sharks were to pull off a triumph in this week of the passing of the legendary architect of their status as a major province/franchise, Ian McIntosh, similar to the one that started it all in that Currie Cup final back in October 1990? The Sharks have the marquee players to do it, particularly if Toulouse are again as average as they were at stages of the round of 16 clash with the Vodacom Bulls last Sunday.
But then it did appear that Toulouse had another gear they could engage if they needed it last week, and they do have plenty of experience of playing knock-out rugby in this competition. They’ve been kings of Europe for no less than a record five times, and will be eager to do it again this year to ward off Leinster’s pretensions to join them at the pedestal. Leinster have won the Champions Cup four times.
Were Eben Etzebeth present, the Sharks would have an outside chance of winning, but we have it on fairly good authority that the Springbok enforcer won’t be in the Sharks team that is to be announced on Friday. Jaden Hendrikse probably won’t be either, but he has a like for like replacement in Grant Williams. There is no-one in the Sharks camp that can match Etzebeth and bring what he does, and with Emile van Heerden also injured, there’s a chance that flanker Vincent Tshituka will find himself at lock.
At the back the Sharks have some of the best attacking players in the competition and last week Makazole Mapimpi showed why he is near the top of the most of the statistics that matter when it comes to attacking rugby. But the key is to get him and Lukhanyo Am the ball, which might be easier said than done against a powerful and big Toulouse pack and against an opponent that, in the best traditions of the old South African way, knows how to squeeze the life out of opponents.
Prediction: Toulouse to win by 10
Exeter Chiefs v DHL Stormers (Exeter, Saturday 18.30)
The Stormers have done a good job of playing down the logistical problems that saw them arrive a good while later in Exeter than originally intended, but it is a fact that their planning, and their onfield training time, was disrupted. They were set to fly on Monday, and were going the direct route, but that all changed and they flew out in three separate batches during the course of Tuesday, some of them via Dubai.
Centre Ruhan Nel thinks lessening the amount of physical training time might actually be a blessing in disguise, and that is a possibility. Nonetheless, while we know that the Stormers love adversity - in fact they thrive on it - and have a penchant for defying the odds, Exeter are a good team and they’ve been at home preparing through the week for this game without the hindrance of having to travel.
We’ve seen plenty of evidence in this competition to support the theory that home ground advantage is even more important in the Champions Cup than in other competitions, and that makes Exeter favourites. Nel was right when he said Exeter director of rugby Rob Baxter was playing mind games when he said the exact opposite.
That the Stormers go into the game with nothing to lose - for that is the case when you are away in a playoff fixture - may be their biggest weapon. A few weeks back they were in a similar position when they went to Leinster. Not many gave them a chance, but they played the Vodacom United Rugby Championship log leaders in inclement conditions at their home ground of RDS Arena and came away with a draw. That should give the Stormers confidence, with confidence perhaps being the biggest strength as they head towards the knock-out phases of both international competitions they are taking part in this season.
We haven’t seen the Stormers travel squad yet, and sometimes that’s an indication they’re hiding something, and it is possible that with an important URC clash with Munster scheduled for seven days after the trip to Sandy Park, not all the top Stormers players will be playing in the quarterfinal.
That though is unlikely - coach John Dobson has a lot of respect for the European competition and he knows what a fillip it will be for him, his team and Cape rugby if they follow up winning last year’s URC trophy by making the semifinals of the URC. But don’t bet on it. The Stormers aren’t favourites, Exeter are.
Prediction: Exeter to win by 7.
La Rochelle v Saracens (La Rochelle, Sunday 16.00)
Given how close Bristol came to upsetting the champions last weekend, this could well be the game of the weekend. Saracens are always dangerous in this competition, but it is has been a long time since La Rochelle have lost on their home ground in the Champions Cup.
Prediction: La Rochelle to edge it.