The away wins for the Vodacom Bulls and the Hollywoodbets Sharks and the three points picked up by the Lions in their draw against the Ospreys has put the local Vodacom URC challenge on the cusp of rare territory for South Africa - four teams in the top eight.
As it is a derby round two local teams are likely to see their challenges hurt, but the Lions are safely enough ensconced in the top eight in terms of the log points advantage they have on the chasers to make it very possible that they will remain seventh or eighth even if they lose to the Vodacom Bulls in the early game of Saturday’s SA derby double header.
The Bulls, who went through a much-publicised seven-game losing sequence that also included three Investec Champions Cup games that don’t count to the URC, can rise as high as seventh after the next round if they beat the Lions with a bonus point and deny the hosts in the Ellis Park clash any bonus points.
That is the highest they can rise to as there is a substantial gap between the top six, which features the second-placed DHL Stormers, and the logjam that is currently developing for the next two playoff places (URC top eight means playoff qualification as well as Champions Cup qualification).
EIGHTH IS AS HIGH AS SHARKS CAN REACH THIS WEEK
The Sharks, who lifted themselves from 14th to 11th with the full house of log points they earned from their good win over the Stormers in Cape Town last Saturday, can go as high as eighth this weekend - which is a much better scenario than the one they faced a few weeks ago. It will, though, require them to do the double on the Stormers by following up the win at DHL Stadium with one at Hollywoodbets Kings Park.
There are other games this weekend that will impact both the Bulls’ and Sharks’ chances of going into the February break for the Guinness Six Nations in the playoff bracket, particularly the Welsh derby between the Dragons and the Ospreys. The Dragons have been much better this season so the Ospreys’ home ground advantage may not count for much, but if the game does get won by the home team, they will end the round in the top eight at the expense of the Sharks.
Although there are two places separating the ninth-placed Bulls from the 11th-placed Sharks, the difference is just one solitary log point.
HOPES OF BENETTON TRIP AGAINST SCARLETS
Two other games that will impact the short-term aspirations of the Bulls and Sharks are Benetton’s clash with Scarlets in Treviso and Edinburgh’s visit to Leinster. An unlikely win over Leinster could squeeze Sean Everitt’s Leinster into the top eight and ease them ahead of the Sharks if they don’t pick up full points against the Stormers.
But Benetton should be the bigger worry for the two South African teams hovering on the edge of the playoff bracket, and indeed the Lions. The Italian team has had an inconsistent season but have a history of picking up momentum later in the competition and currently they are on the same number of log points as the Sharks but ahead in the placings because of number of wins (four against three, the Sharks drew with the Dragons earlier in the competition).
SA TEAMS HAVE PLAYED ONE GAME FEWER THAN MOST OTHERS
One thing that needs to be mentioned in favour of all the SA teams is that there is a bit of distortion to the log in the sense that the local sides have played one game fewer (nine as opposed to 10) than all the other overseas sides with the exception of sixth-placed Ulster, Edinburgh, Connacht and Scarlets.
The Stormers are the only team in the top four who have played one game fewer, which puts in perspective their second position after relinquishing top spot to Glasgow Warriors. The Scottish team leads by just three but has played one game more. It means that while the Stormers’ loss last week might have hurt from a confidence viewpoint, it wasn’t a huge setback provided they quickly get back on the horse.
Just as there is a logjam between the seventh-placed teams and 14th-placed Connacht battling for top-eight spots, a gap of eight points, there is also a logjam between the top six, with seven points separating Glasgow from sixth-placed Ulster.
It all adds to the significance of the final week of league play before the teams take a break, with the Sharks next in action after this with a trip to the Lions on 21 February and the Stormers only seeing action again a week later when they visit Ellis Park, with the Sharks travelling to Pretoria on the same day. There is then another break before the Bulls host the Stormers in the return north/south derby on 14 March.
WEEKEND VODACOM URC FIXTURES
Benetton v Scarlets (Treviso, Friday 9.45pm)
Glasgow Warriors v Munster (Glasgow, Friday 9.45pm)
Lions v Vodacom Bulls (Johannesburg, Saturday 2.30pm)
Hollywoodbets Sharks v DHL Stormers (Durban, Saturday 5pm)
Zebre v Connacht (Parma, Saturday 5pm)
Leinster v Edinburgh (Dublin, Saturday 7.30pm)
Ospreys v Dragons (Swansea, Saturday 9.45pm)
Ulster v Cardiff (Belfast, Saturday 9.45pm)
SCENARIO HEADING INTO LAST WEEKEND BEFORE THE BREAK:
Sharks can climb to eighth if they beat the Stormers, they can drop to 13th
Bulls can climb to seventh if they beat the Lions, they can drop to 13th
Stormers can reclaim top spot if they beat the Sharks and Glasgow lose to Munster.
Lions can only end the weekend as high as they are now (7th), they can drop to 9th
URC LOG POSITIONS
1. Glasgow 39 points after 10 games; 2. Stormers 36 points after 9 games; 3. Leinster 35 points after 10 games; 4. Cardiff 35 points after 10 games; 5. Munster 34 after 10; 6. Ulster 32 after 9; 7. Lions 24 after 9; 8. Ospreys 21 after 10; 9. Bulls 20 after 9; 10. Benetton 19 after 10; 11. Sharks 19 after 9; 12. Edinburgh 18 after 9; 13. Dragons 17 after 10; 14. Connacht 16 after 9; 15. Scarlets13 after 9; 16. Zebre 12 after 10.