Can the Lions defy their own demons and do something they have never achieved before? Or will it be more disappointment for the Johannesburg side, who consistently under-perform under coach Ivan van Rooyen.
The Six Nations break has left the Lions with an interesting poser. So much has been wasted, but there is so much still to play for as they enter the last part of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship.
Their EPCR Challenge Cup campaign is over, and they failed to make the Round of 16 for the second tier competition.
Now all their efforts will be concentrated on the next eight games - six of which are in Johannesburg - and will determine whether, after more than six seasons under Van Rooyen, they can finally break into the top eight and make the playoffs of the URC.
Of course, that also means qualification for the lucrative Investec Champions’ Cup, and while they have come close, their fortunes have dipped consistently with their inconsistency as they have lost games they should have won.
Last season the Lions were in a similar position, and they needed to win their last four games at home if they were to make the playoffs. They lost two of those and ended in 11th position.
While most sides would have lost faith in a coaching team that performs at just over 40 per cent win record, the Lions have not. They have backed Van Rooyen and his coaches despite all the evidence to the contrary, hoping that things will change.
GROWING SQUAD
This is against the backdrop of a squad that is improving, that has the undeniable talents of SA under-20 stars Haashim Pead and Batho Hlekani now in their ranks, and has Springboks like Morne van den Berg, Asenathi Ntlabakanye, Ruan Venter and Quan Horn on their books.
There is enough talent, as we see in patches, to make any side sweat, but the Lions find ways of beating themselves and drop their momentum in moments of inconsistency which are fatal in modern professional sport.
Whatever the issue is, they haven’t found the answer in more than six seasons but keep on trying.
Which is why this run of matches is ever intriguing in its outlook. They have a run of home games on their fast Ellis Park pitch at altitude which should be to their advantage, but whether they can take advantage and press home for a top eight spot waits to be seen.
The six games at home are the real opportunity before they finish off the season in Ireland with back to back games against Leinster and Munster. By all accounts their season needs to be in top gear before then, because if they have to rely on wins away from home in Ireland they may come up well short.
DERBIES START HOME RUN
The six games start with derbies against the Hollywoodbets Sharks - a fixture the Lions dominated last season to everyone’s surprise - and then the DHL Stormers a week later. Both are winnable, but only if the Lions get their composure and game plan right.
Wins in both will give them the edge and a chance to win the South African shield, but they will also take their toll. Derbies are incredibly taxing on SA sides and the immense physicality that they bring will test the Joburg side’s resolve. If they can win both they will be off to the races, and derbies on a warm summer’s afternoon with a 2:30pm kick-off in both will definitely give them a chance.
EDINBURGH, DRAGONS ARRIVE
That would put them back in the top eight and give them a dollop of confidence they need to host other teams. There is a three week break after the two derbies to regroup and refocus, and then Edinburgh arrive, followed by the Welsh side Dragons a week later.
Edinburgh are likely to be without several Scottish stars as will the Dragons, giving the Lions an opportunity to pick up points at home.
There is a break of three weeks before Glasgow arrive, with Connacht following them. And while they will be at full-strength, it will be interesting to see what teams both send to SA as it will be just after the two knockout rounds of the Champions’ and Challenge Cup. Glasgow topped their pool but have to face a resurgent Vodacom Bulls in their Round of 16 game and if they win that will face the winner of Toulon and the Stormers a week later.
They may head to Joburg a bit battered after those two fixtures and it could give the Lions an opening against the URC log leaders.
Connacht are through to the playoffs and host the Hollywoodbets Sharks in Galway in their Round of 16 game and then face the winner of Perpignan and Montpellier if they get through to the quarterfinals.
Either way both Glasgow and Connacht may arrive having played two tough European games while the Lions have sat at home preparing for them.
Those games will be crucial to the Lions’ cause and they will need them because the final two weeks will be daunting to face Leinster and Munster in their own back yard.
But those are the stakes facing the Lions and it is up to them whether or not they will surprise everyone and finally get into the top eight or if it will be another year of disappointment.
REMAINING LIONS FIXTURES:
February 21 v Hollywoodbets Sharks (2:30pm)
February 28 v DHL Stormers (2:30pm)
March 21 v Edinburgh (2:45pm)
March 28 v Dragons (4:30pm)
April 18 v Glasgow Warriors (3:45pm)
April 25 v Connacht (4pm)
May 9 v Leinster (away - 6:30pm)
May 16 v Munster (away - 8:45pm)
May 30 Quarterfinals
June 6 Semifinals
June 13 Grand Final