It is easy to detect a sense of anti-climax due to the final game of the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series being played in Baltimore, USA - in other words many thousands of kilometres away from the theatre of conflict from what had been a thrilling contest on South African soil.
The UK media that has placed such a spotlight on the tour and series up to now has averted its gaze over the past week, with the third test at the FNB Stadium last week headlined as “the real decider”. The last game in the four-match series has for good reason been labelled the money game, and for good reason - that’s really what this game is all about.
It would not be taking place at all, for most modern series are played over three tests, if it was not for the money the South African and New Zealand rugby administrations stand to get out of the game. Or if there was a fourth game, which most wouldn’t be averse to after such an absorbing series, it would be in South Africa.
It would make far more sense for the trophy lift, if the RGR trophy is going to be taken seriously and form a big part of the narrative going forward in these tours scheduled for every four years, to have taken place in Soweto last weekend.
The Kiwi and South African media are generally in agreement with their UK counterparts that this final game is a bit of a sop, with the New Zealanders also running with the “this is the real decider” theme before last week’s game. After all, it was a win in South Africa the All Blacks were after, but they lost that part of the series 2-1.
BOKS V ALL BLACKS IS ALWAYS BIG PLUS THE TROPHY IS SIGNIFICANT
However, once you have stripped all the negatives of playing this game where it is being played away, you are left with the reality, one that the respective coaches have reflected with their selections for this game - it is still the Boks against the All Blacks. And Boks against the All Blacks, such as the Twickenham warmup to the World Cup that was won 35-7 by the South Africans, always matters.
And with a trophy, or a share of a trophy, on the line, this game goes way beyond the status of a warmup game. It is a series decider in the sense that the result on Saturday night South African time will decide how these two teams view each other in every meeting between now and the next RGR series in 2030.
If the Boks win on Saturday it will mean they go into the next series as RGR champions. They will also go into next year’s Rugby World Cup quarterfinal, if indeed these two teams do end up clashing at that point, as the reigning RGR champions. Given that it is much harder to do, winning an RGR series outright is deserving of at least equal status, if not more, as winning a British and Irish Lions series.
Rassie Erasmus and this cycle of players already have a Lions win on their CV, in addition of course to two World Cups and three Rugby Championship titles. Adding the RGR would add further gravitas as they go in search 12 months from now of a hat-trick of World Cup titles, a feat that would be unprecedented.
QUESTIONS OVER THE MOTIVATION ANGLE REQUIRE ANSWERING
There are some interesting questions to be asked about level of motivation on the eve of this final clash. The Boks would have expended a high level of emotion in defending their home territory last week. Losing the home leg would have been a disaster. The New Zealanders would have left these shores with boasting rights regardless of what happens in Baltimore.
But the Kiwi effort in Soweto demanded high emotion too, and while there is obviously talk in New Zealand of it being a pass mark if the All Blacks return to their shores with a share of the trophy, which is held together by a magnet and can therefore be divided into two parts, there was a sense of deflation last weekend. The tourists had one hand on matching the achievement of Sean Fitzpatrick’s ‘Incomparables’ when they won the first game in Johannesburg.
If there is too much deflation the All Blacks could be in trouble, for while their coach Dave Rennie has significantly changed up his team for this game, in some cases because he had to because of injury but in other cases voluntarily, you did get the feeling that in the second half of last week’s game the Boks breached a hole in the All Black dam wall that might be hard for them to plug.
Rennie’s selection reflects respect for the standing of the final game, and while the three frontline players injured last week will be hard to replace, he does have experience in the form of Anton Lienert-Brown coming in at centre (he has more than 90 caps) and ability in the back row, where the All Blacks have lost both Ardie Savea and Luke Jacobson. The All Black pack has a more staunch look to it with Tupou Vaa’i playing flank rather than lock.
As they haven’t played much in the series, the newcomers may just have an advantage in freshness in comparison with their Bok counterparts, who have mostly backed up for four weeks in a row.
That’s one of the biggest questions that will determine the Baltimore result, and the other is what is more of a driving force - the Kiwi need to blunt the negativity that descended last week when it was realised the SA frontier was a bridge too far for them by achieving some form of redemption, or the Bok need to put to bed all the debates about which team is currently the stronger one and is tracking in the right direction with a resounding win that will put an emphatic seal on their RGR campaign?
My money says that this will be the Boks’ most comprehensive win yet, for it should now be evident to everyone that the Bok power game is starting to take control, but then this series has produced its fair share of surprises.
South Africa v New Zealand, Fourth test, Baltimore, Saturday 12 September.
South Africa: Damian Willemse, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Ethan Hooker, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Morne van den Berg, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Wilco Louw, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenakamp, Thomas du Toit, Lood de Jager, Andre Esterhuizen, Cameron Hanekom, Cobus Reinach, Manie Libbok
New Zealand: Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Anton Lienert-Brown, Jordie Barrett, Josh Moorby, Richie Mo’unga, Cam Roigard, Peter Lakai, Ethan Blackadder, Tupou Vaa’i, Sam Darry, Patrick Tuipoluto, Fletcher Newell, Codie Taylor (captain), Ethan de Groot. Replacements: Asafo Aumua, Xavier Numia, Tyrel Lomax, Josh Lord, Wallace Sititi, Kyle Preston, Rieko Ioane, Beauden Barrett.
Referee: Karl Dickson (RFU)
Kick-off: 11pm SA time
Prediction: SA to win by 15 or more