There’s been a lot of talk about Italy missing several of their first choice players for Saturday’s Nations Championship test match at the Allianz Stadium in Turin but then that was the case before they played the Springboks in Pretoria last July and we know what happened.
To refresh memories, the world champions won comfortably enough, but after a dominant first half the Italians stormed back in the second half and subjected the hosts to some embarrassing moments. The most embarrassing was a driving maul try of the type normally executed by the South Africans against their opponents, and definitely not expected to be the other way around.
It drew a spiky response from the Boks in the return game in Gqeberha a week later, with a team skippered that day by Salmaan Moerat executing the ruse of ensuring the kickoff brought a scrum, which the Boks used to make an early physical statement. They duly did that and ran out comfortable victors, but there was enough competitiveness in all three games Italy played against the Boks in the previous international season to ensure that Siya Kolisi’s men will have guarded respect for their opponents on Saturday.
REMINDER OF POTENTIAL CURVE-BALLS
The last time the two sides clashed was at Saturday’s venue last November and that game delivered a reminder of the curve-balls that can sometimes be delivered to pre-match expectations because of the blight on the modern game, which is yellow and red cards. On that occasion it was a red shown to Bok lock Franco Mostert for a head high tackle on Italy flyhalf Paolo Garbisi in the 12th minute that saw the Boks go down to 14 men for all of 68 minutes.
So it was some achievement on the visiting team’s part that they still won 34-12 and scored four tries to one, but it was nip and tuck for much of the way and the Boks were considered fortunate to be ahead 10-9 at halftime thanks to a late Marco van Staden try.
However there is a caveat that needs to be considered when looking at that game a year ago and considering what might happen on Saturday - not only were the Boks down to 14 men for most of it, they had to think on the hoof with a relatively inexperience and makeshift team that featured 14 changes from the side that beat France, also with 14 men for more than half of it, in Paris the previous week (that time it was Lood de Jager that got sent off).
FULL METAL JACKET THIS TIME
The Boks are going Full Metal Jacket, as Stormers coach John Dobson would say, for this one, and that hasn’t been the case for the Boks in the previous three games. Whether that signals an intention to go full strength in all the games on this four match tour we will have to wait and see, for coach Rassie Erasmus will be very aware that he needs to keep working on his depth and increasing the game capacity of players that might just be needed this time next year at the World Cup in Australia.
The recent defeat to Australia in Perth notwithstanding, the Boks can win big games while also training their eye on a more distant goal, and they have done it often, and against good opponents, over the past two seasons. If you disagree, think about Wellington last year - that was a much changed up team and it recorded a biggest ever 43-10 win over the All Blacks.
Erasmus sticking with the core of the team that won the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series may well have been built around the need to assimilate the other players into the systems before considering them for game action. After all, there were only six days available for the South African and France based players to prepare for this game, so it did make a lot of sense to stick with the players who have played most often in recent months.
POINTS DIFFERENTIAL WILL DEMAND 80 MINUTE ENGAGEMENT
Going with their strongest team does though add to the possibility that the Boks could score the big win that would make their quest to make the Nations Championship final easier, and it would be naive to think that isn’t on their mind as they play this first game of the tour. At the very least, it will guard against a loss of concentration if a lead is opened up, thus mitigating against the chances of a repeat of the second half at Loftus 15 months ago.
A 50 pointer, which is entirely possible, will be a big advance given they already have a points differential advantage on New Zealand, who are second in the southern hemisphere group with the same number of log points.
The big event of the year for the Boks was the RGR series and they won that, so Erasmus doesn’t really need to be chasing the Championship trophy, which was only introduced to try and make these end of year games more meaningful, which some would argue wasn’t necessary, and not every team is paying too much attention to it. With a World Cup now less than 12 months away, there is a big focus on building towards that, which should require bold selections.
My suspicion is that how Erasmus treats the Championship will depend on how the early games on tour turn out. If the points differential and bonus points don’t come, the pursuit of playing the main game on Finals Weekend in London might take second place to building towards next October.
But this game should see the Boks chasing a big win, and they should achieve it, particularly as they will not be going onto the field in a complacent mood, and they have a pack equipped to dominate their opponents. There is some history building between these two nations, and the Boks will no doubt also not mind making a statement in this last meeting between the sides before they clash again in the pool phase of the RWC.
Teams
Italy: Mirko Belloni, Ange Capuozzo, Paolo Odogwu, Leonardo Marin, Monty Ioane, Paolo Garbisi, Alessandro Fusco, Lorenzo Cannone, Samuele Locatelli, Alessandro Ortombina, Federico Ruzza, Niccolò Cannone, Simone Ferrari, Giacomo Nicotera (captain), Muhamed Hasa. Replacements: Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, Danilo Fischetti, Ion Neculai, Enoch Opoku-Gyamfi, Ross Vintcent, Manuel Zuliani, Stephen Varney, Tommaso Allan
South Africa: Damian Willemse, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Ethan Hooker, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Morne van den Berg, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Salmaan Moerat, Thomas du Toit, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Gerhard Steenekamp, Wilco Louw, Lood de Jager, Cameron Hanekom, Paul de Villiers, Grant Williams, Manie Libbok.
Referee: Eoghan Cross (IRFU)
Prediction: South Africa to win by 30 or more.