Their first appearance in the Vodacom URC playoffs could be assured by the time they kick off their final league game against Munster, but for the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions the motivation shouldn’t be any less than if they were playing to survive.
For a start there is the small matter of the other prize the Lions are playing for in their quest to finish in the top eight. Qualification for the Investec Champions Cup.
As it stands, top eight in the URC gets you into next season’s elite European competition, but there is a caveat - if Ulster finish outside the top eight but win next week’s EPCR Challenge Cup final they will displace the eighth placed URC finisher.
Which means the Lions need to finish seventh to be sure of being in the Champions Cup for the first time, something which, given the financial boost to a team playing in the more elite competition, may be even more important to them than being in the knock-outs.
Then there’s another thing - while there doesn’t appear to be too much reason to care where you are actually placed when you are positioned from fifth to eighth, because all those teams have to travel, for the Lions the difference between finishing fifth and eighth can be measured in terms of kilometres.
As in how many more kilometres will the Lions have to travel should they finish between sixth and eighth and have to head to the northern hemisphere compared to a fifth placed finish which, unless the Vodacom Bulls really spit the dummy in an unexpected way against Benetton on Saturday, will see them playing their quarterfinal just up the M1 in Pretoria.
BULLS ALMOST CERTAIN OF FOURTH AND HOSTING QUARTERFINAL
The Lions won on their last visit to Loftus and it is not the only time in recent years that they have won at the venue, so there would be a massive difference to their outlook if they were playing a derby final. Of course, they could finish seventh, which would mean they go to Cape Town for the first knock-out game. But that is surely second prize to playing at a venue they travel to by bus.
It’s a reason for the Lions to run out against Munster in this last game with high emotion intensity to win it regardless of what happens in the games preceding it. If Ulster and Cardiff lose on Friday night, they have the security of knowing they are in the top eight, but a passage to Loftus should be what they set their sights on.
The other part of the equation for that to happen, meaning the Bulls beating Benetton to confirm a top four finish and a home quarterfinal, is expected rather than hoped for, particularly given how poor Benetton were when they lost 46-7 to the Sharks last week.
As always there’s the rider that for the Bulls to get what they are chasing, they need to stick to plan - which for them means back their pack and stick to the basics of the subdue and penetrate rugby, or suffocation rugby if you like, rather than play as playing a touch game on the beach where contact has to be avoided at all costs.
STORMERS KNOW THEY MUST STOP GIFTING OPPONENTS
The same argument has become a perennial one around the DHL Stormers this season, and it is quite freaky, considering they are only one point off top place, to tabulate the number of log points they might have squandered with performances where they conspired against themselves and were charitable to the opposition.
They did gain one more than would have been expected when they fell 38-31 behind Ulster with just a few minutes left, but given their dominance they should really have won that game and banked five points. So that’s two points missed out on and another five when poor game management cost them an unexpected home loss to Connacht just under a month ago.
Like Connacht, the Hollywoodbets Sharks did play well when they came to Cape Town in January but the Stormers did appear to horribly underestimate their opponents that day and surrendered points because they departed from plan. They should also have got more out of the away game in Durban a week later considering they were 10 points up at one point of the second half.
Of course every team has those “what if’ stories and moments when they aren’t quite as on top of their game as they should be, but in the Stormers’ instance there aren’t many games on their win record where you’d say “Well, they were lucky to win that one”.
Most have been with something to spare, with the closest to defeat in their winning games they have come being in the Cape Town derbies against the two Gauteng teams.
The Stormers will be the first to agree that last week’s game was a good indicator of why they are not well clear at the top and heading into their final league game against Cardiff on Friday night without the pressure of having to see it as a must win.
But it is a must win, at least in the sense that the Stormers should feel that a top-two finish is a minimum requirement after the way they dominated the log in the early stages.
SURE OF TOP EIGHT BUT DOBSON’S MEN DESPERATE TO WIN
Director of rugby John Dobson has made some changes to his team directed around the need to boost player capacity ahead of the knock-outs, which is a more fancy way of saying they need game time, but that doesn’t mean they don’t see themselves as already being on a knockout footing.
As two front-row forwards in hooker Andre-Hugo Venter and skipper and tighthead Neethling Fouche put it this week, they need to secure at least a home semifinal.
The chances of going higher than that are now very low as Ulster have picked a significantly understrength team for the visit of Glasgow as they prioritise next week’s EPCR final in Spain. But a win over Cardiff will put them in a position where they will stay ahead of third place Leinster, and it just needs to be a win because of the Stormers’ vastly superior points differential.
FINAL ROUND PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS
Cardiff v DHL Stormers (Cardiff, Friday 8:45pm)
The Stormers let one slip last week. They got three points from the Ulster game but it should have been five so they have treated that result as a defeat and will be playing accordingly at Cardiff Arms Park, which like last week’s is a venue they’ve never tasted victory at.
It won’t be easy for there is a reason Cardiff have only lost once at home this season but provided they stay on plan and repeat the cold blooded approach, as they called it, that succeeded against Glasgow they have the pack to dominate and lay the platform for victory.
It goes without saying it will require much better discipline as well as a much improved defensive performance.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 6 or more
Ulster v Glasgow Warriors (Belfast, Friday 8:45pm)
On last week’s form against the Stormers you’d give Ulster a chance of helping their previous opponents out by knocking back the Glasgow challenge, but because Ulster are so close now to their EPCR Challenge Cup final against Montpellier it is unlikely.
Ulster let the Stormers know after the 38-all draw of seven days ago that their game was the one they’d targeted in this two match URC window before their final in Bilbao and that they’d be fielding academy players against Glasgow.
It isn’t quite an academy team, and in addition to the likes of regulars such as Werner Kok and fullback Mike Lowery, plus James Hume who is an Ireland capped centre returning from injury, there are also a few first team regulars on the bench. But there are 10 changes to last week’s winning team and John Dobson is right - an Ulster win giving the Stormers a chance to go top would be an unexpected bonus and is definitely not an expectation.
Ulster losing will help the Lions, so the Johannesburg team should have a reason for a minor celebration on Friday even if Cardiff do get up against the Stormers.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 12
Edinburgh v Connacht (Edinburgh, Friday 8:45pm)
Connacht were very impressive in comprehensively beating Munster in Galway last weekend and apart from their defeat to the SecureDrive Lions in Johannesburg two matches ago, they have a winning run in this competition that stretches back almost to the start of the year.
Edinburgh have little to play for but will be eager to finish the season on a positive note and they are also a different animal at home. So it should be a closely contested game, with Connacht’s winning momentum and their reward for victory giving them the edge.
Prediction: Connacht to win by 7
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Zebre (Durban, Saturday 1:45pm)
The Sharks are correctly using this dead rubber stage of a season where they have so under-performed as a vehicle to grow depth and blood some exciting youngsters, and in this game the Junior Bok flyhalf Vusi Moyo is taking his turn to make a bow, with Zikhethelu Siyaya switching back to fullback.
If Moyo follows the example of Siyaya and another teenager in Luan Giliomee he will further add to the hope that is just glimmering through the general late season gloom.
Prediction: Sharks to win by by around 20
Vodacom Bulls v Benetton (Pretoria, Saturday 4pm)
Benetton were so poor against the Sharks last week that it is possible to hypothesise that they checked out from this season when they beat Leinster in their last home game. That was seen as the close by those players who are moving on as well as those coaches who may not be involved next season, with this trip to South Africa just something they need to get through.
That said, no-one likes to get outplayed, and Benetton were a few minutes away from being whitewashed in Durban, so there should be some motivation to correct and bounce back. The physically imposing Bulls are though a tough team to try and do that against.
Prediction: Bulls to win by more than 20
Leinster v Ospreys (Dublin, Saturday 6:15pm)
By the time this game kicks off Leinster would have known for nearly 18 hours whether they have a chance of going into second position. Which would be beyond them if the Stormers beat Cardiff. But while they may well not be playing for a top two spot, they will be eager to get the five points that will keep them beyond the range of the Bulls and Lions and on their home soil against a Welsh team playing only for pride they should do it.
Prediction: Leinster to win by around 20
Scarlets v Dragons (Llanelli, Saturday 6:15pm)
This looks like a nothing game because neither team is in contention for anything but if you take a closer look at the log it is actually quite a significant game in terms of how far from the basement the winner will end. Both teams are tied for 14th currently, each of them with 25 log points.
The Dragons have enjoyed a promising, improved season despite their lowly position and will be eager to make a point but Scarlets have home ground advantage.
Prediction: Scarlets to win by less than 7
Munster v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions (Limerick, Saturday 8:45pm)
You could say the best has been saved for last, for there are no caveats like there are in some others when it comes to how desperate the teams should be to win. Victory will make sure of a place in the top eight whereas defeat could mean dropping out of the top eight completely.
For the Lions that is unlikely given who and where other teams around them are playing, but they will know how vulnerable they are before the game kicks off as for them to drop out it would require Connacht to win against Edinburgh the night before and probably with a bonus point as the Lions do have a considerably better points differential in the event of them tying on points.
If Connacht did draw ahead by one point, it would require the Lions to pick up a bonus point. My hunch is that it will be a losing bonus point that separates them from Connacht and secures Lions their log advantage over the Irish team, but that shouldn’t mean much if, as expected, Ulster drop points on Friday night. Or Cardiff do.
It all favours the Lions when it comes to top eight qualification, but there is the all important matter of where they play their quarterfinal. Loftus wouldn’t be a tasty option for an overseas team but it should be to the SA Shield winners.
Prediction: Munster to win by 7
Log positions after 17 games: 1. Glasgow 60; 2. Stormers 59; 3. Leinster 58; 4. Bulls 54; 5. Lions 53; 6. Munster 51; 7. Cardiff 50; 8. Ulster 50; 9. Connacht 49; 10. Sharks 41; 11. Ospreys 39; 12. Edinburgh 38; 13. Benetton 33; 14. Scarlets 25; 15. Dragons 25; 16. Zebre 15.