When it comes to deciding who will challenge to be Pool winners when the final round of this phase of the Nations Championship is played next weekend, it is the games that bookend the fifth round that could prove the most decisive.
France against South Africa on Friday night gets top billing this weekend and rightly so - the last three games between the sides have all been humdingers. It started with the narrow Springbok defeat in Marseille in 2022, where the South Africans were unlucky to lose narrowly in a match where Pieter-Steph du Toit was red carded in the early minutes.
A red card also played a role last year, with Lood de Jager being sent off just before halftime and thus condemning the Boks to play more than half the game a man down. They pulled through to win, with their physical superiority towards the end of that game beggaring belief considering they had only 14 men on the field.
And then of course there was the game in 2023 at the World Cup hosted by France, the one that the French will just never forget, but one which was rated as one of the finest World Cup games ever played.
That though doesn’t tell the whole story. Paris is also a very significant moment in this inaugural Nations Championship as the result will go some way towards determining who might come out on top in either Pool. The competition is divided into northern and southern hemisphere groups, and as it stands the southern group is a two horse race between South Africa and New Zealand.
There is just points differential separating the teams at the top, with the Boks ahead by virtue of the fact that they have a superior points differential of 67. Both teams have won four games, both teams have picked up bonus points for scoring four tries or more in all of their four games. So in other words, heading into the penultimate round, the two top teams in the world have maximum log points.
PARIS DEFEAT WILL LEAVE KIWIS NEEDING JUST TO WIN REMAINING GAMES
The All Blacks will be looking to make up some of the points differential advantage their arch-rivals have on them in their quest to finish top and qualify for the main final in London at the end of the month when they visit Cardiff to play Wales on Saturday.
Given how flat the Welsh looked at times during their win over Japan last week, and the big defeats they have copped from the big nations like SA, New Zealand, France and England in recent times, the All Blacks will fancy their chances of significantly closing the gap by winning big at the Principality Stadium.
But the meaning of a big win will depend on what happens in Paris the night before. If the Boks lose to France, then New Zealand will finish top provided they beat both Wales and England in their last two round robin games. Points differential will become irrelevant. Conversely, a South Africa win coupled with enough of a margin to make a significant improvement on an already big points differential will increase the pressure on the Kiwis.
MOST OF SATURDAY’S GAMES HAVE PREDICTABLE WINNERS
It shouldn’t be too difficult to predict the winners in most of the games to be played on Saturday, with the possible exception of the first one. Italy, fresh from their drubbing at the hands of the Boks, host Argentina, fresh from their drubbing at the hands of Ireland, in Genoa. However, neither team is registering in their Pool, so that game is irrelevant when it comes to any conversation around the destination of the inaugural Championship trophy.
England should see off Japan with relative ease, ditto Ireland Fiji, and it is really only the points differential angle that makes the Cardiff game interesting. New Zealand will definitely win it.
SCOTLAND WILL OPEN THE DOOR IF THEY BEAT WALLABIES
Australia though are again in Sunday action, and their game against Scotland in Edinburgh could have an impact. Not on their Pool, for the Boks and All Blacks are on their own there, but the northern Pool, as a Scotland win could just bring them back into contention going into a final Pool weekend that will feature several big and potentially decisive games - Boks against Ireland, All Blacks against England, France against their old bogey team, Argentina.
Scotland host Japan, so you can see how, if the southern hemisphere teams blanket that final weekend, Scotland could just leapfrog their way to first or second. England and Ireland have a four log-point lead on Scotland as it stands, France have six - but a Scotland win over the Wallabies will bring them nearer to France if France lost to the Boks and they will keep pace with the other two heading into the final weekend that will decide who plays who in the Finals Weekend at the end of November.
Conversely, and this is what makes Sunday's clash at Murrayfield a decisive game, if the Scots lose they are out of the reckoning.
England currently lie second in the north courtesy of a superior points differential compared to Ireland’s. The difference is 42 currently so that puts points differential into focus for both teams as they host relative minnows in the form of Japan and Fiji on Saturday.
Fifth round Nations Championship fixtures
France v South Africa (Paris, Friday 10:10pm)
Italy v Argentina (Genoa, Saturday 1:40pm)
Wales v New Zealand (Cardiff, Saturday 4:10pm)
England v Japan (London, Saturday 6:40pm)
Ireland v Fiji (Dublin, Saturday 10:10pm)
Scotland v Australia (Edinburgh, Saturday 5:10pm)
Pool situation
Southern Pool: South Africa 20 points, New Zealand 20, Australia 8, Argentina 7, Japan 5, Fiji 0.
Northern Pool: France 17, England 15, Ireland 15, Scotland 11, Wales 10, Italy 0.